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Tancredo Out?

Posted on : 19-12-2007 | By : Jim Lynch | In : 2008

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Adam Fogle notes at The Palmetto Scoop:

Presidential candidate Tom Tancredo has says he will make a “major campaign announcement” Thursday in De Moines, Iowa. The Greenville News‘ Dan Hoover notes that, “unless he’s naming his running mate, I can’t imagine anything else he’d consider major beside getting out.” Assuming Tancredo does drop out, it probably won’t have much of an impact in South Carolina — even if he does endorse someone — because he’s barely showing up in statewide polling and his name ID rivals that of most unborn children.

(h/t: The brand new The Ruckus)

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Get It Right

Posted on : 16-12-2007 | By : Jim Lynch | In : 2008

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The Republican debate in Iowa this past week is being universally awarded the Worst Debate Ever by most, if not all pundits. Jonathan Martin at The Politico wrote on Friday:

Dissatisfied with the debate here Wednesday that drew widespread scorn, Iowa Republicans will discuss on Friday the possibility of holding another forum before the January 3rd caucuses.

The debate this week, sponsored by the Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television, was to have been the final gathering of the GOP contenders, but one well-placed Iowa Republican said tonight that they were interested in getting the candidates back together

“We’d prefer if the Register debate did not leave a bad taste,” said this source, who requested anonymity. “Iowa deserves a little better than that.”

The most likely possibility would be the week after Christmas, when many of the contenders are expected back in the state to make a final push before the voting.

I do agree with Allahpundit who wrote, “Do it well or don’t do it.”

The biggest obstacle will be the logistics of the short time left between the Christmas holidays and the Caucuses. Leaving that aside, what would make this debate worth doing?

I have a few suggestions:

  • Limit the debate to Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney. While I like both Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, eliminating them along with Ron Paul and Alan Keyes (why was he included anyhow?) would allow for a much more substantive debate.
  • Limit the number of questions. Allow more substance over quantity.
  • Related to the above, allow the candidates time to answer, allow rebuttal, and encourage discussion.
  • Find a moderator who can control all of the above, and ask relevant follow up questions. I have seen Rush suggested.

Add your suggestions in the comments. How many and what questions should be asked? Who should moderate? Format? Anything else?

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The Ice Debate

Posted on : 12-12-2007 | By : Jim Lynch | In : 2008

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The latest and last (before the first caucus) debate of Republican presidential candidates takes place in Iowa at 2pm EST. The stage will be crowded. Participating: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney.

Real Clear Politics includes this in their analysis:

Add it all up and we should expect to see another round of sharp exchanges between candidates, most of which will involve Mitt Romney. We’ll have to see whether today’s debate changes anything, but given the location and the proximity to caucus day, it’s a fairly important day for the top tier candidates to have a good showing and, most importantly, not to make a big mistake.

Captain Ed offers up some thumbnail thoughts about what various candidates need to accomplish. Here are a few snippets.

Mike Huckabee — No mistakes, connect emotionally, and seem reasonably conservative.

Mitt Romney — He has to stay focused and ignore Rudy while gently gunning for Huckabee.

Rudy Giuliani — Rudy needs a good performance, but not a great one, and will do best if he’s not the central focus.

John McCain — An extended dialogue on immigration hurts him here, but again, he’s not all that concerned with Iowa.

Fred Thompson — If he plays analyst instead of candidate, he’s toast.

It is with his thoughts on the rest of the field that I most agree:

As for the rest, at this stage, the Register should have taken a pass. They have not developed into contenders by any measure, and the inclusion of Alan Keyes is a strange joke. The DMR could have given us a chance to hear five realistic candidates with some time to get into detail on the issues, but instead chose to have nine with time for little more than soundbites.

Brian will be liveblogging at Liberty Pundit (if the power stays on). The link is here.

Steveegg (No Runny Eggs) is liveblogging here.

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Debate Reactions

Posted on : 29-11-2007 | By : Jim Lynch | In : 2008

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Overall, the CNN/YouTube debate questions were better than I expected. Prior to the debate I looked at 100+ of the nearly 5000 questions submitted. I was concerned. CNN did a fair (but far from good) job of selecting the ones to use. Still, I think the format is more gimmick than substance.

The candidates:

Mitt Romney did well and didn’t hurt himself. Not hurting yourself is often the best you can expect from these debates. His initial exchange with Rudy Giuliani over immigration seemed to go a little farther than necessary, but no real gaffes. GRADE: C+

Rudy Giuliani may not have hurt himself, but he sure didn’t help himself. At all. He didn’t seem to bring his ‘A’ game, at least not until after the second break. His defense that NY wasn’t a sanctuary city appeared, well, defensive. GRADE: C-

John McCain did much better than he has in past debates. He came across as less angry and more passionate than in past performances. He did well on all topics but still has not convinced me that the Amnesty Bill wasn’t amnesty. He is the one candidate that I’ve liked well in the debates, but can not support because of his past record on McCain/Feingold, amnesty, and the “Gang of 14″, etc. GRADE: B

Fred Thompson has the best answers and is closest to my views across the board. His White Papers and the details he has for his ideas are outstanding. He just doesn’t convey a real spark. If there were more passion I think he would be unbeatable. GRADE: B

Mike Huckabee probably did more to help himself than any of the others. His emergance in the polls may have caused the moderators to give him some additional focus. On a personality level he appeared to be very relaxed and comfortable with all the questions, much more than I’ve seen in past debates. GRADE: B+

Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo didn’t help or hurt themselves, but for the most part were non-factors. GRADES: C

Ron Paul was not received well by the members of the live audience other than those who already support Ron Paul. He tried (again) to say that he isn’t an isolationist. Saying it doesn’t make it so. He is wrong on the war and forign policy. He will not be the nominee no matter how much money he raises or how loudly his supporters can shout. GRADE: F

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Iowa Debate Without Paul, Tancredo, Hunter

Posted on : 10-11-2007 | By : Jim Lynch | In : 2008, Politics

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The Republican debate in Iowa on December 4th will not (as of now) include candidates Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, or Ron Paul. The Iowa Republican Party, who is sponsoring the debate along with Fox News, issued standards for participation on Tuesday.

The Ronulans are not amused.

That’s because the sponsors said participants need to average 5% support among Republicans in recent national or Iowa polls — and so far, Texas Rep. Ron Paul is one of the candidates not making the cut.

News of the party’s decision and how to protest it was spread quickly over the Internet by supporters of the anti-war, anti-tax, anti-abortion libertarian. “We are getting bombarded” with calls and e-mails from Paul’s supporters, said GOP spokeswoman Mary Tiffany. She said there were 25 voice mails from angry Paul supporters before the start of business Thursday.

The answer Tiffany gives is exactly right:

“I’m all about the First Amendment, but at the same time, how is this productive?” she asked. “They need to start calling voters and start door-knocking instead of calling the Republican Party of Iowa.”

The deluded supports really think that they are doing much, much, much better than they are. Any suggestion to the contrary is treated as a) delusion, or b) a conspiracy.

Expect them to be in a foul mood for the next four weeks.

(h/t Flopping Aces)

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Sunday Morning Update

Posted on : 05-08-2007 | By : Jim Lynch | In : 2008

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Happy 2nd Blogiversary to:
The Pool Bar and
Happy 3rd Blogiversary to:
Inside Larry’s Head

And then there were nine.

Nine Republican rivals have agreed to join the debate being broadcast from Drake University in the state where precinct caucuses launch the presidential nominating season. ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” will host the debate, with Stephanopoulos serving as moderator.

The debate will air at 10:00am Eastern Time with nine GOP contenders.

Joining the debate will be Sen. Sam Brownback, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Rep. Duncan Hunter, Sen. John McCain, Rep. Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Rep. Tom Tancredo and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.

I will try to have occasional updates here. I will also let you know if there is going to be a post debate roundtable at Debate Central.

UPDATE: Thanks to Steveegg for the information that the live debate has already started. My local affiliate obviously plays This Week on tape delay. I guess the No Runny Eggs live thread will start when his local affiliate starts to broadcast as well.

00:00 Introductions in order of poll rank.

No times. I’m watching the delayed broadcast on DVR (further) delay. I also missed quite a bit

Brownback is still stuck on his three state solution for Iraq

McCain on Iraq — Victory or we’ll be back.

Giuliani notes what none of the Dem candidates will say, that this is part of a war against Islamic terrorism.

Romney summarizes Barack Obama’s week. Sit down for tea with our enemies, nuke our allies. “In one week he’s gone from Jane Fonda to Dr. Strangelove.”

Tommy Thompson is a less than inspiring speaker

I guess the Paultards have come to Drake University

Nothing much new from any of them.

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