The Iowa caucuses have begun. Looking at FOX news they are saying that turn out is high. I’ll be liveblogging on this post, and commenting at Curt’s chat and the Marblehead Regiment Forum.

What are your predictions for the Iowa Caucus today? Leave your comments here or discuss it at the Marblehead Regiment Forum.

Here is a video message from Fred Thompson that everyone should watch.

It’s 17+ minutes long, but it’s worth watching. Take a look.

Thanks.

The Republican debate in Iowa this past week is being universally awarded the Worst Debate Ever by most, if not all pundits. Jonathan Martin at The Politico wrote on Friday:

Dissatisfied with the debate here Wednesday that drew widespread scorn, Iowa Republicans will discuss on Friday the possibility of holding another forum before the January 3rd caucuses.

The debate this week, sponsored by the Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television, was to have been the final gathering of the GOP contenders, but one well-placed Iowa Republican said tonight that they were interested in getting the candidates back together

“We’d prefer if the Register debate did not leave a bad taste,” said this source, who requested anonymity. “Iowa deserves a little better than that.”

The most likely possibility would be the week after Christmas, when many of the contenders are expected back in the state to make a final push before the voting.

I do agree with Allahpundit who wrote, “Do it well or don’t do it.”

The biggest obstacle will be the logistics of the short time left between the Christmas holidays and the Caucuses. Leaving that aside, what would make this debate worth doing?

I have a few suggestions:

• Limit the debate to Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney. While I like both Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, eliminating them along with Ron Paul and Alan Keyes (why was he included anyhow?) would allow for a much more substantive debate.
• Limit the number of questions. Allow more substance over quantity.
• Related to the above, allow the candidates time to answer, allow rebuttal, and encourage discussion.
• Find a moderator who can control all of the above, and ask relevant follow up questions. I have seen Rush suggested.

Add your suggestions in the comments. How many and what questions should be asked? Who should moderate? Format? Anything else?

Brian (Liberty Pundit) takes the pulse of Iowa voters for Pajamas Media.

To sum up, it appears to me – at this point – that we’ll see a victory by Obama and Huckabee in the Iowa Caucuses. Obama, I think, is virtually assured a victory, unless the Clinton campaign drops a bombshell on him in the coming weeks that seriously erodes his support (given how hard they’ve been trying, it’s quite possible they’ll find something that will do the trick).

Huckabee, I think, is less of a certainty. As I mentioned earlier, the people I have spoken with are supporting either Romney or Thompson, and everyone they know is doing the same thing. They have seen little support for Huckabee. Either it’s a flaw in the polls or a fluke in that like-minded conservatives tend to talk about these things with each other (“birds of a feather”, you know). Time will tell, but unless something major happens between now and January 3, I’m going to predict a Huckabee win.

Perhaps it is only wishful thinking, but I have to disagree with Brian’s analysis regarding Mike Huckabee. I don’t think his “boom” is going to last much longer. Either way, we’ll know more in just a few short weeks.

[Regarding the Huckabee "surge", have you participated in the poll? You can find it in the right sidebar or you can vote and comment here.]

I want to take you on a quick ride around the blogosphere to sample the reaction to yesterday’s Republican debate. The opinions are varied, but there is one point of consensus — the debate format and moderator were absolutely awful. 30 second answers and show of hand questions are no way to run a debate. Having nine candidates in a 90 minute debate this late in the game is a recipe for, well, what we got yesterday.

Let’s start with the two blogs I watched live blog the speed fest.

Liberty Pundit Brian calls it a win for Romney and a loss for Fred Thompson.

No Runny Eggs Steve graded the candidates who in his opinion ranged from D- for Alan Keyes up to B minuses for Thompson and Giuliani and a B for Romney.

John Hawkins at Right Wing News ranked the players from bottom (Alan Keyes) to top (Fred Thompson) saying, “Winner: Fred Thompson. Good substance, good personality, and his I won’t raise my hand for an answer question reminded me of Reagan say “I paid for this microphone.” Fred definitely won.”

I will be adding to this through the day and early evening.

The latest and last (before the first caucus) debate of Republican presidential candidates takes place in Iowa at 2pm EST. The stage will be crowded. Participating: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney.

Real Clear Politics includes this in their analysis:

Add it all up and we should expect to see another round of sharp exchanges between candidates, most of which will involve Mitt Romney. We’ll have to see whether today’s debate changes anything, but given the location and the proximity to caucus day, it’s a fairly important day for the top tier candidates to have a good showing and, most importantly, not to make a big mistake.

Captain Ed offers up some thumbnail thoughts about what various candidates need to accomplish. Here are a few snippets.

Mike Huckabee — No mistakes, connect emotionally, and seem reasonably conservative.

Mitt Romney — He has to stay focused and ignore Rudy while gently gunning for Huckabee.

Rudy Giuliani — Rudy needs a good performance, but not a great one, and will do best if he’s not the central focus.

John McCain — An extended dialogue on immigration hurts him here, but again, he’s not all that concerned with Iowa.

Fred Thompson — If he plays analyst instead of candidate, he’s toast.

It is with his thoughts on the rest of the field that I most agree:

As for the rest, at this stage, the Register should have taken a pass. They have not developed into contenders by any measure, and the inclusion of Alan Keyes is a strange joke. The DMR could have given us a chance to hear five realistic candidates with some time to get into detail on the issues, but instead chose to have nine with time for little more than soundbites.

Brian will be liveblogging at Liberty Pundit (if the power stays on). The link is here.

Steveegg (No Runny Eggs) is liveblogging here.

I just saw this, although it was published yesterday. All In Fred Thompson moves to Iowa.

FORMER TENNESSEE SENATOR Fred Thompson has decided to take his campaign and virtually all of its resources to Iowa in an all-or-nothing attempt to register a strong showing in the caucuses here on January 3. “We’re getting ready to make this not only our second home, but our first home,” he told a small gathering of supporters at the Polk County Convention Center on Friday night. Thompson and his wife Jeri chatted with the crowd before making their way through the exhibits at the Iowa Farm Bureau’s annual meeting in downtown Des Moines.

It will take a strong showing by Fred Thompson in Iowa for him to have a chance at the nomination. With less than four weeks before the caucuses the question becomes is there enough time for this to have an impact?

“Iowa is critical to our campaign, and it may in fact be everything to our campaign,” says one Thompson official. “If we don’t do what we need to do in Iowa, it will be tough to compete effectively down the road.”

Thompson has said publicly that he needs to finish in the top three in Iowa. Campaign officials say that a strong third place finish–presumably behind new frontrunner Mike Huckabee and former frontrunner Mitt Romney–would likely give them enough momentum to survive New Hampshire and compete in South Carolina and beyond. A second place finish would be a victory. “Just when the interest is there the greatest,
is when we’ll be here the most.”

Current polling has him in third. I don’t think that will be good enough. Moving up to second is critical, but it’s going to be hard. Neither McCain nor Giuliani are expending much effort in Iowa.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks. Any impact will have to be seen quickly in order for it to snowball into the kind of impact Thompson needs to see.

The Republican debate in Iowa on December 4th will not (as of now) include candidates Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, or Ron Paul. The Iowa Republican Party, who is sponsoring the debate along with Fox News, issued standards for participation on Tuesday.

The Ronulans are not amused.

That’s because the sponsors said participants need to average 5% support among Republicans in recent national or Iowa polls — and so far, Texas Rep. Ron Paul is one of the candidates not making the cut.

News of the party’s decision and how to protest it was spread quickly over the Internet by supporters of the anti-war, anti-tax, anti-abortion libertarian. “We are getting bombarded” with calls and e-mails from Paul’s supporters, said GOP spokeswoman Mary Tiffany. She said there were 25 voice mails from angry Paul supporters before the start of business Thursday.

The answer Tiffany gives is exactly right:

“I’m all about the First Amendment, but at the same time, how is this productive?” she asked. “They need to start calling voters and start door-knocking instead of calling the Republican Party of Iowa.”

The deluded supports really think that they are doing much, much, much better than they are. Any suggestion to the contrary is treated as a) delusion, or b) a conspiracy.

Expect them to be in a foul mood for the next four weeks.

(h/t Flopping Aces)

From Brian’s day-long slog through the news surrounding the poll:

1: Mitt Romney 4516 votes 31%
2: Mike Huckabee 2587 votes 18.1%
3: Sam Brownback 2192 votes 15.3%
4: Tom Tancredo with 1961 votes, 13.7%
5: Ron Paul with 1305 votes, 9.1%
6: Tommy Thompson 1,009 votes 7.3%
7: Fred Thomson 203 votes 1.4%
8: Rudy Giuliani 183 votes 1.3%
9: Duncan Hunter 174 votes 1.2%
10: John McCain 101 votes 1%
11: John Cox 41 votes .1%

My quick thoughts
1. Mitt Romney — As expected.
2. Mike Huckabee — An impressive showing that should be a boost to his campaign.
3. Sam Brownback — Quite respectable.
4. Tom Tancredo — His stance on immigration?
5. Ron Paul — Maximum effort for little result. His camp is already crying foul.
6. Tommy Thompson — Has said “that if he didn’t finish in the top two his campaign was likely to end.” [source]
7. Fred Thompson — Hasn’t announced and wasn’t there.
8. Rudy Giuliani — Did not participate.
9. Duncan Hunter — I’m sure this is quite a bit less than he was hoping for, and much less than he needed.
10. John McCain — Did not participate.
11. John Cox — Never a serious contender.

Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have made the decision to sit out of today’s Iowa Straw Poll leaving Mitt Romney as the presumptive front runner. The big fight today is for second place.

“This is a chance to break out,” says Brownback, a 50-year-old Kansas senator who is an outspoken foe of abortion, embryonic stem-cell research and same-sex marriage. “We can finally start getting the national media.”

Said Huckabee, a 51-year-old Southern Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor, “We want to do well to show that the momentum continues to build.”

Although neither would concede that a poor showing would end their presidential hopes, others say it would be difficult to survive.

“I think there will be sort of a natural realignment after the straw poll,” said veteran Republican strategist Bob Haus, who is not affiliated with any candidate. “One of them will emerge as a clear favorite and start to coalesce this constituency.”

Ironically, Brownback and Huckabee have an opportunity because better-known rivals, Sen. John McCain, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Sen. Fred Thompson, decided not to compete in the straw poll.

Just because you’re not in Iowa doesn’t mean you can vote, at least unofficially. I have a new poll in the right sidebar. Get your vote in now, before the voting ends in Ames.

UPDATE: Brian is not in Ames, but is still covering the straw poll at Iowa Voice

That’s what we might need if the current trend continues.

South Carolina is poised to hold its Republican presidential primary earlier than Feb. 2, 2008, likely in mid-January, a move that is expected to push New Hampshire and Iowa to follow suit.

Such shifts could mean the first GOP nominating contest could take place in December of 2007, in just four months.

How early are they all planning to go in this game of reverse leap frog?

One place that no politician will call for retreat is in the face of political influence. Unless common sense suddenly comes in to play, a circumstance that doesn’t have much historical precedent behind it, you have to wonder how much longer and more ridiculous they can make the process.

If this continues, the first primary of the 2012 elections will be held on November 11th 2008.