The Florida primary is just a few days away and it is drawing attention beyond the Sunshine State. Here, for what it’s worth, is my look at things.

One of the races getting national attention is the US Senate race. William Escoffery III, William “Billy” Kogut, and Marco Rubio make up the Republican side of the ballot. Regular readers will know that I have been excited about Marco Rubio since May of 2009. That support has only gotten stronger as the campaign has played out.

In the beginning it was about Rubio versus Governor Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination. Once Marco Rubio gained enough attention, which he did by clearly expressing his conservative principles, Crist proclaimed himself a moderate, took a sharp left, and decided to run as an Independent. While that has cleared the way for Rubio in the primary, it has turned the election in to a three ring circus. The latest Rasmussen poll has Rubio out in front by five points — if Kendrick Meek is the Democratic candidate, but he trails Crist by one if Jeff Greene gets the primary win.

Here, in one minute, is the reason I am supporting Marco Rubio:

The other Florida race getting national attention is for Governor. On the Republican side Rick Scott and Bill McCollum are getting all the attention, while Mike McCalister is getting good reviews from conservatives and TEA Party groups, but little else. McCalister is just a blip in the polls and his fund raising is mere pennies on the dollar compared to either Scott or McCollum. It is unfortunate that his lack of money and recognition have created a very lackluster campaign. His About page on his website is nothing more than a pdf file of his CV. McCalister is arguably the most conservative candidate, but the shortcomings of his campaign make it tough to support him.

The choice, as I see it, is to support McCalister in the primary and then support the winning candidate in November, or to vote for one of the other candidates now to get the one I really want in the November race. It’s a dilemma. I know the arguments. If McCalister is the best candidate, and I don’t vote for him, how can I expect anyone else to do so? On the other hand, is it throwing my vote away on a candidate that has no chance of winning? And if I don’t vote for McCalister, who do I vote for? Ask me today and I would probably tell you I’m leaning towards Scott about 51-49. Tomorrow that could easily be reversed. The reason it’s so close in my mind is that I have equal parts support and doubt for each candidate. Convince me in the comments.

I live in Congressional district 12. The seat is currently held by Adam Putnam, but he is leaving the seat to run for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture. John Lindsey Jr. and Dennis Ross are the Republican candidates, while Randy Wilkinson is the TEA Party candidate. In this race my support goes to Dennis Ross, at least through the primary.

That’s it for now. Share your thoughts in the comments.

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Today Governor Charlie Crist gets to choose how to lose his bid for the U.S. Senate. At a news conference scheduled this afternoon Crist is expected to announce that he will run with No Party Affiliation.

A year after it seemed he was the man to beat for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate and a virtual shoo-in in the general election, Crist has seen his poll numbers nose-dive and speculation has run rampant about his chances of surviving a primary against tea-party favorite Marco Rubio, the state’s former House speaker. The 53-year-old governor has scheduled a Thursday evening event in his hometown where he will reveal his plans, though three confidants have said he’s already decided to abandon his long-shot GOP primary bid and run as an independent.

As much as Crist will try to spin this decision as a principled stand, it’s hard to see it as anything more than a desperate move by someone who knew they were about to lose big time.

Crist will have quite a few hurdles to jump by pulling out of the GOP Primary, not the least of which is his frequent and recent claims that he wouldn’t run as an Independent.

Asked five times last month by Chris Wallace whether he would run as an independent for the U.S. Senate seat in Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist responded “no” five separate times.

Whoops.

Mark Noonan quotes a FOX News blog post by Kimberly Schwandt

Crist has said that under no circumstance would he drop out of the race, saying he will do what is best for the voters of Florida. The governor says Republicans in Washington want him to stay in the Republican party but voters in Florida have told him they want him to run as an independent.

Noonan’s response is exactly right.

No, Charlies, what the voters of Florida have told you is that they don’t want you in the United States Senate. But, you are an opportunist and a political climber, so you can’t imagine yourself not being in high office…clearly losing your Senate bid, you seem to be settling on a desperate bid for even the slightest chance of staying in public office.

But let’s back up just a minute. There is a sentence in the Schwandt quote that really gets to the core of not only this race, but much of the grass root sentiment that is key to this year’s elections, “The governor says Republicans in Washington want him to stay in the Republican party but voters in Florida have told him they want him to run as an independent.”

He’s correct only in the first part, Washington Republicans want him to stay in the party, but the people in Florida and many, many other places around the country are making it clear that they don’t want wishy-washy hopey-changey Washington-knows-best politicians representing them.

I was going to finish this by saying that shortly after five o’clock we’ll know, but really, that’s only going to make it official.

UPDATE: Another good read.

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Governor Charlie Crist has until noon Friday to decide if he will run as an independent.

Crist spent Thursday and Friday of last week meeting with key Republican strategists and donors that had come into his political orbit over the last decade, testing them on the idea of whether or not he should run as an independent, according to one senior Florida GOPer.

Most Republican sources in Florida and Washington seem to believe that a Crist switch is a foregone conclusion — there is even speculation about when this week he might choose to announce it — but, as almost always in these sorts of delicate political situations, there are very few people who know the real deal and they are not talking much.

Put me in the camp thinking he will pull out of the Republican primary. I’m leaning (about 70/30) to him running as an Independent rather than just sitting this one out. I think the key adviser he is listening closest to is Charlie Crist. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course, but I have a feeling that his major consideration is his personal political aspirations over a desire to serve the people who would elect him.

Should he run as an Independent expect Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek (the likely Democrat nominee) to make the most of his political expediency. Framing his run as a principled decision will be an uphill battle.

We’ll know the answer by noon Friday.

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Charlie Crist has until next Friday to decide if he is going to keep his word and stay in the Republican primary, pull out of the primary and support Marco Rubio, or to run as an independent while trying to spin like a ballerina on speed explaining it as a principled move. The Christian Science Monitor points out a fourth option, running for reelection as governor, but says that none of his option are very good.

Brad Coker, president of the Mason-Dixon polling firm, sees an independent run by Crist for Senate falling flat almost immediately. “The minute he announces, that’s the zenith of his campaign,” says Mr. Coker, who is based in Jacksonville, Fla.

But if the smart move is to wait for a more hospitable climate, it’s not clear that Crist has the patience for that. Part of what has hurt him is his ambition. Almost as soon as he was elected governor, he started floating vice presidential trial balloons.

As you can see, only one of the four options has Crist staying in the primary race. Frankly, I don’t see any way that happens, and if it does Rubio gets the nod in a walk.

Matt Towery, writing at the Southern Political Report thinks that an independent run a done deal.

It may be the worst-kept secret in American politics today, and it’s apparently about to become a reality. Reliable sources informed me today that embattled Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, whose early lead in his US Senate Republican primary race against former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has essentially reversed itself in the polls, is preparing to announce sooner rather than later that he will leave the GOP and continue his run for Senate as an independent. Sources add that the speech Crist will use in his announcement is now being drafted.

Of course Crist is known from time to time for running political misdirections that surprise even political experts at the last minute. But the tea leaves Crist has left trailing behind him in recent weeks – particularly his about-face in vetoing an education reform bill dear to Florida Republicans – certainly seem to portend an abandonment of the party. Throw in, too, that he has recently been losing support from national and Florida GOP honchos – such as Mitt Romney and Crist’s now ex-campaign chair, former US Sen. Connie Mack, among other various Florida Republican luminaries.

The only thing that likely would stop a Crist independent run now is for the pressure from disillusioned Republicans and longtime Crist supporters to put so much pressure on him not to run at all that he relents. That pressure is mounting almost by the hour. Or that pressure could only speed up his party switch.

My feeling is that the choice will be Independent, with an outside shot at sitting out. Staying in the Republican Primary is least likely, with another run at the Governors office also a remote possibility. Whatever the choice he makes, we’ll know in the next few days. Leave your thoughts in the comments, and vote in the poll in the right sidebar.

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Take a look at the “debate” and let me know your thoughts.

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11 county Republican straw polls — 11 wins for Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist.

But this one was different.

The fact that Crist lost in Pinellas County, which he represented in the state Senate and where he’s lived nearly all his life, can’t be a good sign for Crist.

This is another in a string of positive events for Marco Rubio. Nearly unknown and trailing significantly in the polls just a year ago, Rubio’s conservative message has energized party faithful and impressed those less politically aware.

One common, if anecdotal, theme is that Rubio stands out because of his beliefs, but also because of how genuine he appears to be.

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Good morning, and welcome to 2010! The old meme for the new year used to be how long would you be writing 2009 on your checks. In 2010 the question is, do you still write paper checks?

One conversation at work yesterday was about not just how quickly 2009 went by, but how it seems like such a short time ago that we were welcoming 2000 (when we weren’t worried about Y2K bringing the world to an end).

2009 was a very interesting year in many ways. Of course the biggest story has been the year of the unprecedented presidency. Why it’s been one historic moment after another. Then you remember that the Hindenburg and Little Big Horn were also historic moments and hope that 2010 can fix some things.

Politics, of course, will be a big part of 2010. The mid-term elections, and the primaries preceding them, will interesting to watch (and blog about). In addition to following the national races, I am going to watching the Rubio-Crist race here in Florida very closely.

One very important story here in the very first moments of 2010 is will Fox and Brighthouse/Time Warner resolve their dispute?

The negotiations between Fox and Time Warner Cable were extended a second time early this morning.

The original midnight deadline first was pushed back to 3 a.m., then a second time to 7 a.m. The two parties are negotiating in Los Angeles.

As of 8:44 local time Fox is still on. Why is this important? For many people it’s today’s Sugar Bowl between Florida and Cincinnati and Tim Tebow’s last college game. Beyond that, for me at least, is the fact that Season 8 of 24 starts in just 2 weeks, 2 days, 11 hours and 11 minutes. I need Fox so I can continue to contribute to Blogs.4Bauer.com

So, what are my blogging plans for 2010?

• More, and more regular, posting here at bRight & Early. Sure, I make this a goal every year, but this year I’m going to do it.
• I’ve posted over the past few days about The Regiment. I’m going to work very hard to develop the site as a great social network and resource for conservatives.
• Reclaim Conservatism also deserves some attention.
• FloridImagine.com is my hosting reseller site. There’s no excuse to neglect an opportunity to generate some revenue.
• I’ve made some halfhearted attempts to get Blog News Co-op off the ground. Perhaps a wholehearted attempt is what’s needed.
• Aside from working on the various sites I contribute to, I absolutely have to be a more active visitor and commenter on my friends and favorite blogs. Like:
  • Support Your Local Gunfighter
  • Sister Toldjah
  • No Runny Eggs
  • Common Sense Political Thought
  • Flopping Aces
  • Ace of Spades HQ
  • Pirates Cove
  • Brian Pickrell
  • Michelle Malkin
  • Hot Air
  • Right Wing News
  • Confederate Yankee
  • The Jawa Report
  • And so many more that I shouldn’t have even started a list like this.

And, to make this a Rule 5 post remember that 2010 is the year the Danica Patrick joins NASCAR.

Happy New Year!

2010 image by freeimageslive.co.uk – christmashat

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Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio is going to be the keynote speaker at CPAC.

CPAC Director Lisa De Pasquale made the announcement on the conference’s Twitter feed.

“We chose Rubio because he is an upcoming leader. He is someone that a lot of people are excited about,” De Pasquale told POLITICO. “His name keeps getting brought up and we decided that he would be a good keynote for 2010.”

He is an excellent choice. As Allahpundit said at Hot Air:

It’s an easy pick because there’s no pol in America aside from Sarahcuda whom the base is more excited about, and he needs this exposure a lot more than she does. It’s essentially a huge, free advertisement for his Senate campaign with all the earned media that goes along with that. And of course it’s a great advertisement for conservatives too: He’s young, charismatic, and a minority, which makes him almost the polar opposite of the standard media caricature of right-wingers.

My guess is that the crowd at CPAC is going to love this choice. He is extremely popular with party activist, going 12-0 in straw polls, winning most by huge margins.

The race between Rubio and Crist is being touted as an indicator of conservative sentiment and power. CPAC may give Rubio the name recognition he needs, and then the real test can begin.

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Senate candidates Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio appeared at the Alachua County Republican Party’s 7th Annual Ronald Reagan Black Tie and Blue Jeans BBQ. Laura Ingraham was the keynote speaker.

Rubio gave the event’s invocation, but first made comments along his campaign theme of being the race’s true conservative.

“It’s very simple: We already have a Democratic Party in America,” he said. “We do not need two Democratic parties in America.”

Crist gave a speech running through a long list of positions to prove his conservative bona fides, from support of gun rights to tax cuts. But he received a less enthusiastic greeting than Rubio from the grassroots activists in attendance, even getting a small smattering of boos.

This scenario, minus the candidates, has been playing out at county events all summer. Rubio’s support, at least as indicated in straw polls held among party activists, has been outstanding. On possible reaction to the NY-23 special election may be for the NRSC to stay out of this critical primary.

One can only hope.

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Larry Thornberry writes about the Florida U.S. Senate primary between Governor Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio saying, “Marco Gets It.” He had the opportunity to sit down with Rubio. Here’s a taste:

His answers to my questions give a feel for what kind of a conservative he is.

Larry Thornberry – The American Spectator: Why do you think your campaign is increasingly successful, both in collecting money and in better poll numbers?

Rubio: I think it’s because my candidacy offers Floridians the opportunity to decide that we don’t want to be the party of cap and trade, that we don’t want to be the party of stimulus, that in fact we want to send people to Washington who will stand up to the direction this administration is taking our country and offer a clear alternative. We already have a Democratic Party. We doesn’t need two Democratic parties.

The base is enthusiastic about our candidacy. An authentic center-right message, an authentic limited-government message is where the mainstream of American politics is. The extremists in American politics are the ones who want government to take over our economy. The extremists are the ones who want government to dictate energy policy. The extremists are the ones who want America to become more like the rest of the world and less like the exceptional country that we know and love. Those are the ones who are out of touch with everyday Americans. Those of us who believe government shouldn’t spend money it doesn’t have, who believe the government shouldn’t become so involved in the economy that it becomes impossible to open a business in the spare bedroom of your home, we’re in the mainstream of American thought.

Do read the whole post. The Rubio campaign website is here. You can follow @MarcoRubio on Twitter.

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