As hurricane Irene heads for Canada, I noticed this at the National Hurricane Center site:

Note the area marked 1 in red near the coast of Africa.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW…AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70
PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

So, we have that to look forward to.

In the mean time, could you lend a hand with the 2011 100 Post Marathon? Just $10 from 115 people will do it.

If you can…

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Here are some bloggers near Irene’s path that you should check in on:

• Sister Toldjah [Twitter]
• Wyatt Earp – Support Your Local Gunfighter [Twitter]
• Dana – Common Sense Political Thought
• Others will be added.

If you can…

About the 2011 100 Post Marathon.

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After a good night’s rest I’ve walked the dogs and had two cups of coffee. It’s time to crank this marathon up to high. Why a hundred post marathon? Read about it here.

There is really only one story today – Irene. As I write this, the center of the storm is in the vicinity of NY. The worst is, hopefully, past the Philly, South Jersey area. I grew up in South Jersey, and still have friends and family there. I want to remind them, and everyone impacted by the storm, don’t be complacent after the worst weather has passed. The cleanup can be, and often is, worse than the storm. People with no chainsaw experience, and fat old men like me, try to do things they would be better off leaving to others. I knew a woman who was killed in the cleanup following hurricane Hugo. She was watching some men cut up a pine tree in her back yard, away from where they were working. When the tree was cut through, and the weight was taken off the trunk, the bottom portion of the tree sprang up due to the roots still in the ground. The other roots caught her, and swept her under the tree. I don’t mean to be graphic, but please people be smart.

96 more in the next 24 hours. That works out to 4 an hour. Of course I have to finish mowing the yard and the kids will want some computer time, and I probably should sleep sometime tonight. I’d better get a move on.

If you can…

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Are you handling the blistering pace of 100 Post Marathon posts? All eyes, of course, are on coverage of hurricane Irene. Florida was spared. So, how come we spent a good part of the afternoon fighting flickering power? I gave up on resetting the two clocks in the house that still require human action – the coffee pot and my bedside clock radio. That minor inconvenience is nothing compared to what others are facing, or soon will be.

Like many of you, I’ve been watching storm coverage all afternoon and evening. I have family and friends in North Carolina, although mostly in the western part of the state. I hope to hear from them soon. I also have family still living in NJ and friends throughout the Delaware Valley. They are seeing the beginnings of what could be a very long 24 hours. Be sure to stop by SYLG and keep Wyatt laughing.

If you can…

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Just a few random thoughts for a Friday morning.

We are only a week away from September 1st. That’s how long you have to participate in the bRight & Early 2012 Presidential Primary Poll #11. The poll is in the sidebar, and although participation so far has been rather low, the results so far are rather one sided.

I still haven’t resolved the issue between the number showing at the bottom of the site and the number seen on my Sitemeter stats page, but both numbers are now over 500,000 — so it’s official.

Hurricane Irene is well off the Florida coast, but still could impact the Carolinas. Be safe up there.

It’s a Friday and I’m home from work. I was off yesterday, too. And, I’ll be off this weekend. A four day weekend sounds like a good thing, doesn’t it? Not in this case. Wednesday night Cindy was on the way to work and our VW Beetle died. She was 10 minutes away from work. I guess it was better then than when she gets off at 2am. Her daughter went and picked her up, but she missed a night of work that we needed (she works for tips). We had the car towed yesterday morning by our mechanic. After taking a look at things he informed us that we have a major short in the electrical system. When he gets the (expensive) repair done he will still have to take the car to the VW dealership to have the computer reset. He will work with us, but if you ever wanted to hit the tip jar, this would be a very good time.

UPDATE: We just heard from our mechanic. It wasn’t good news. He can’t fix it, and estimates that the dealership will charge us over $3500 to get it fixed. That’s more than the car is worth. We don’t have access to the money we would need for a down payment on something else. I’m working on that, but time is not on our side. If you can help, thank you so much. If you can’t do anything financially, can you point people to this post?

Have a great Friday, and a wonderful weekend.

If you can…

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Not.

OK. It’s going to be sunny, but that warm part is right out the frost laced window. As I sit here in Central Florida typing this, it is 30 degrees outside. As in below freezing. I know my friends farther north will be laughing at me saying that 30 degrees is a warm spell. Laugh all you want. It may be 30 now, but it’s supposed to get into the 70′s by the end of the week.

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Central Florida, and by extension me, is in some desperate need of a bit of global warming.

The two hours before dawn Wednesday will be the coldest, perhaps the coldest on record in Central Florida.

Forecasters are predicting lows just below freezing with some cold spots in the mid 20s. The wind chill will make bare skin feel like the temperature is 6 to 8 degrees colder.

When sun peeks above the horizon at 7:19 a.m. when many people are heading for work, the cold will be a shock. The wind will make it seem colder.

Central Florida residents are already preparing for another night of chilly weather in the Sunshine State. Don’t expect much improvement in the temperatures until Friday.

It is 30 degrees right now, the same as it was when I took the dogs outside a little while ago. We get cold weather in central Florida — a day at a time. This is the third day (and the coldest) and there’s no warming forecast for another few days.

I can only imagine what those of you are going through where it’s supposed to be cold.

Brrrrr.

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Tropical storm Erika has formed in the Atlantic. Here’s what the National Hurricane Center had at 5am:

AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES…455 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR…AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The latest five day forecast track has the storm just north of the Bahamas by Sunday. We’ll be watching.

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It’s how these things go. Ana, the first named tropical storm of this season, has been downgraded to a tropical depression. Bill is now a hurricane. Claudette, which just kind of popped up, is a storm and has already made landfall in the panhandle.

Let’s start with Claudette:

AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED EAST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA AND WEST OF DESTIN
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER THIS MORNING.

[...]

AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES…25 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BREWTON ALABAMA AND ABOUT 40
MILES…65 KM…NORTHWEST OF FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.

Ana, the first to form, is the one of the three projected to impact central Florida weather most directly. The current forecast track has the remains of the low to be just off shore around Tampa Bay by Friday.

Bill is the strongest of the three, but NOAA models have it turning to the north before it reaches Florida.

AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES
…1870 KM…EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH…35
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND BILL
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

Of course, as with any tropical system, the projected path can change. Keep an eye on all of them. I will be.

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June – Nada. July – Zilch. First two weeks of August – more of the same. But now on the 15th of August, the 76th day of the 2009 hurricane season, we have not one, but two tropical storms to keep an eye on.

Ana is first in line. It could impact the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Sunday or Monday, but the are forecasting it to remain a tropical storm.

Bill is right behind and has the potential to be a stronger storm. The current forecast calls for it to be a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon.

It wasn’t that many years ago that this area of Florida was criss-crossed by three hurricanes. We pay attention.

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