Central Florida, and by extension me, is in some desperate need of a bit of global warming.

The two hours before dawn Wednesday will be the coldest, perhaps the coldest on record in Central Florida.

Forecasters are predicting lows just below freezing with some cold spots in the mid 20s. The wind chill will make bare skin feel like the temperature is 6 to 8 degrees colder.

When sun peeks above the horizon at 7:19 a.m. when many people are heading for work, the cold will be a shock. The wind will make it seem colder.

Central Florida residents are already preparing for another night of chilly weather in the Sunshine State. Don’t expect much improvement in the temperatures until Friday.

It is 30 degrees right now, the same as it was when I took the dogs outside a little while ago. We get cold weather in central Florida — a day at a time. This is the third day (and the coldest) and there’s no warming forecast for another few days.

I can only imagine what those of you are going through where it’s supposed to be cold.

Brrrrr.

Tropical storm Erika has formed in the Atlantic. Here’s what the National Hurricane Center had at 5am:

AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES…455 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/HR…AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The latest five day forecast track has the storm just north of the Bahamas by Sunday. We’ll be watching.

It’s how these things go. Ana, the first named tropical storm of this season, has been downgraded to a tropical depression. Bill is now a hurricane. Claudette, which just kind of popped up, is a storm and has already made landfall in the panhandle.

Let’s start with Claudette:

AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED EAST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA AND WEST OF DESTIN
FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER THIS MORNING.

[...]

AT 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT
15 MILES…25 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BREWTON ALABAMA AND ABOUT 40
MILES…65 KM…NORTHWEST OF FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.

Ana, the first to form, is the one of the three projected to impact central Florida weather most directly. The current forecast track has the remains of the low to be just off shore around Tampa Bay by Friday.

Bill is the strongest of the three, but NOAA models have it turning to the north before it reaches Florida.

AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES
…1870 KM…EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH…35
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND BILL
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

Of course, as with any tropical system, the projected path can change. Keep an eye on all of them. I will be.

June – Nada. July – Zilch. First two weeks of August – more of the same. But now on the 15th of August, the 76th day of the 2009 hurricane season, we have not one, but two tropical storms to keep an eye on.

Ana is first in line. It could impact the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico on Sunday or Monday, but the are forecasting it to remain a tropical storm.

Bill is right behind and has the potential to be a stronger storm. The current forecast calls for it to be a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon.

It wasn’t that many years ago that this area of Florida was criss-crossed by three hurricanes. We pay attention.

100 Post Marathon #11

It’s one of the most exciting times of the year here in Florida — Hurricane Season.

Current projections call for a near normal year for hurricanes, Gerry Bell, lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said at a briefing. The named storms are expected to include 4 to 7 hurricanes of which 1 to 3 are likely to be major storms.

I saw Hugo up close and personal. The 4 storms that cris-crossed Florida in 2004, too. Get ready folks. The totals they are predicting don’t matter. It only takes one. The official start is June 1st.

If you can…

To learn more about the 100 Post Marathon read here and especially here.

It looks as if Florida may dodge Ike.

AT 500 AM EDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES… 65 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR..AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY…AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

The current forecast track has the storm traveling across Cuba for the next day or two and then continuing north west toward landfall with the United States. The “Cone of Uncertainty” puts the eye anywhere from the Texas/Mexico border to the Alabama/Florida border with the center of the predictions pointing to south east Texas next weekend.

Tropical storm Hanna is still heading up the east coast, and could make landfall on the northern South Carolina coast early tomorrow morning.

AT 500 AM EDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES…200 KM…NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 430
MILES…690 KM…SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER…RAINS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA
WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

Hurricane Ike is heading for the Bahamas, and could be heading for South Florida sometime in the middle of next week.

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES…740
KM…NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES…1065 KM…
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
SATURDAY…WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK…IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.

Josephine is still quite far away and looks unlikely to have any great impact on Florida.

The Republican Convention, night 3 (or 2b), is under way. But while we wait for Governor Palin’s highly anticipated remarks lets peek into the southern Atlantic.

Here’s the really short version:

Hanna is still a tropical storm and is forecasted to skirt the eastern seaboard.

Ike is now a hurricane. The forecast track places it in the Bahamas around Monday and Southern Florida could follow that.

Tropical storm Josephine is further away and may be losing strength.

The good news is that Gustav was less disruptive and destructive than it could have been. Good news, but not all the news. As Gustav breaks apart over the Louisiana inland, there are three other systems heading for the U.S. and Caribbean.

First up — Hurricane Hanna.

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES…
55 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 395 MILES
…635 KM…SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH…4 KM/HR. SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER…BY
WEDNESDAY A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
IS EXPECTED BEGIN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS….WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

So, we have that to look forward to in the second half of the week. But Hanna’s not alone. Her buddy Ike is just over the horizon.

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1235 MILES
…1985 KM…EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR…AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

The current path puts Ike in the Bahamas late next weekend. And if that’s not enough excitement for you, tropical depression 10 will probably become tropical storm Josephine sometime in the next 24 hours. That one is still “a ways away”, as they say.

Oh. Hurricane season doesn’t end until November.

Labor Day starts with Gustav just off the Louisiana coast.

AT 400 AM CDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES…
185 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 195
MILES…315 KM…SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES…105 KM…SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL…WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY.

Today’s events at the Republican Convention have been pared down to the minimum required to legally conduct business. They are expected to convene at 3pm Central time for a few hours to: Constitute the convention, hear the report of credentials committee, adopt rules for the convention, elect officers, and adopt the party platform.

The rest of the convention schedule and plans will be adjusted based on the landfall and impact of Gustav.

The 2pm public advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER…
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

[...]

AT 100 PM CDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES…
520 KM…SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FORECAST TRACK…GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE TO DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH…185
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS…AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY THEREAFTER…BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES…325 KM. NOAA
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH…
97 KM/HR…WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH…126 KM/HR.

Neither President Bush nor Vice President Cheney will attend the Republican Convention on Monday. Instead the president will be monitoring the Hurricane as it impacts the U.S. gulf coast.

The GOP is weighing changes to the length and tone of the convention in light of the approaching storm. Details have not been released.

Gustav, still a tropical storm this morning, appears to be tracking further west which could take the center of the track below Jamaica rather than between Jamaica and Cuba. The extended center of the cone is also tracking further west toward south central Louisiana rather than New Orleans. But Gustav isn’t alone. Tropical depression eight is in the tropical Atlantic heading west.

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE
57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES…575 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…8
KM/HR…AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

When this becomes a named storm it will be called Hanna. The long range forecast, for now, has it becoming a hurricane and turning due west around Monday morning. If that track is accurate it could be heading toward the Florida east coast early next week.