Al-Zarqawi Death Doubtful

Like a bad imitation of Chevy Chase on SNL I could have titled this post, “Al-Zarqawi, Still Not Dead”. Early speculation was that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi could have been among those killed in a gunfight in Mosul. AP reports,

U.S. forces sealed off a house in the northern city of Mosul where eight suspected al-Qaida members died in a gunfight – some by their own hand to avoid capture. The White House said Sunday that it was “highly unlikely” that the terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was among the dead.

[...]

On Saturday, police Brig. Gen. Said Ahmed al-Jubouri said the raid was launched after a tip that top al-Qaida operatives, possibly including al-Zarqawi, were in the house in the northeastern part of the city.

During the intense gunbattle that followed, three insurgents detonated explosives and killed themselves to avoid capture, Iraqi officials said. Eleven Americans were wounded, the U.S. military said. Such intense resistance often suggests an attempt to defend a high-value target.

But Trent Duffy, a White House spokesman, said reports of al-Zarqawi’s death were “highly unlikely and not credible.”

American soldiers controlled the site Sunday, and residents said helicopters flew over the area throughout the day. Some residents said the tight security was reminiscent of the July 2003 operation in which Saddam Hussein’s sons, Odai and Qusai, were killed in Mosul. Eyewitnesses said the military left the area early Monday.

This is not the first close attempt to get al-Zarqawi. Earlier this year he was nearly captured in a raid that did yeild his computer and in May he was reportedly (but never confirmed) wounded.

WaPo is reporting (h/t Don Surber),

U.S. military officials believe it is possible that Zarqawi was killed in the raid but will not know with certainty until DNA tests are run, said a U.S. military intelligence official involved in Iraqi issues.

There is a “30 percent” chance that one of the bodies is Zarqawi’s, he said. But he warned: “We’ve had dry holes before.”

While “highly unlikely and not credible” is probably the correct, 30 percent odds are still better than those of the Eagles going to the Super Bowl. What are the consequences if he is nothing more than DNA in a Mosul hideout? Daffydd at Big Lizards analyzes it this way.

If indeed he has been killed, he will be considered a martyr; there’s no getting around that. But — while a dead martyr may be revered, he cannot keep the terrorists from splitting into warring factions the way a living Zarqawi has done. The dead cannot recruit as well as the living, nor can they plot and plan horrific attacks with the same boldness and gut-sense of their victims’ vulnerabilities.

If Zarqawi has been slain, the effectiveness of the Iraq jihad will be shattered. Within a few weeks, they will run out of Zarqawi-created operations; they may splinter even sooner than that. In any event, al-Qaeda In Iraq cannot survive the death of its cultic figure, I believe, not in its present form and effectiveness (effective only at slaughtering innocent Iraqi civilians — but that’s bad enough).

Even as I’ve been writing this AP has and updated story casting more doubt on the likelyhood that Zarqawi was among those killed.

U.S. forces left a cordoned area around a house in the northern city of Mosul on Monday where eight suspected al-Qaida members died in a gunfight over the weekend. The White House said it was “highly unlikely” that terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was among the dead.

[...]

During the intense gunbattle with suspected al-Qaida members on Saturday, three insurgents detonated explosives and killed themselves to avoid capture, Iraqi officials said. Eleven Americans were also wounded, the U.S. military said.

Police Brig. Gen. Said Ahmed al-Jubouri said the raid was launched after a tip that top al-Qaida operatives, possibly including al-Zarqawi, were in the house.

However, Trent Duffy, a White House spokesman, said Sunday that reports of al-Zarqawi’s death were “highly unlikely and not credible.” Eyewitnesses in Mosul said the U.S. military, which had cordoned off the area around the two-story house, left the area early on Monday.

“We have no indication that Zarqawi was killed in this fight and we continue operations to search for him,” Lt. Col. Barry Johnson, a U.S. military spokesman, said Monday.

Speed of Thought has a round up of sites blogging this story as does Stop The ACLU.

Linked with breakfast at basil’s blog.

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